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Maui's May 2015 Sales Statistics

May Sales Sales Last Month % Change Sales May % Change

2015 2014

Homes 88 86 2% 86 2%

Condos 109 104 5% 117 -7%

Land 12 12 0% 20 -40%

   May Median Price Median Price Last Month % Change Median Price May 2014 % Change

2015

Homes $607,098 $578,000 5% $537,500 13%

Condos $469,000 $407,500 15% $472,000 -1%

Land $563,750 $417,500 35% $575.000 -2%

   June Current Inventory Inventory Last Month % change Months of available inventory  

   Homes 697 725 -4%             7.92  

Condos 987 1024 -4%             9.06  

Overall Maui Real Estate Sales Bounce Back

After a slow start, price settle down

Sales of both homes and condos bounced back big time in March and April.  Homes jumped up 25% over February’s numbers. Maui Condos jumped 28% in March and then slowed a little in April. 

 The selling prices, not necessarily the asking prices, dropped a bit over the preceding months.  I wouldn’t call that a trend, though.  Condo selling prices, although down in April compared to March, are still up 8% for the year.  Home selling prices are perfectly flat. The median selling price for a home on Maui through 4 months of 2015 is exactly the same as last year.

 Overall, the inventory of homes for sale on Maui appears to be well balanced with about 6 and a half months of inventory*.  However, 74% of the homes sold were sold at $780,000 or less.  There are only about enough homes in that price range to last 3 months.  So, while sellers of homes at less than $780,000 are enjoying a seller’s market, buyers of homes priced at over $780,000 are experiencing a buyer’s market. 

 Pending sales have had a healthy increase since the beginning of the year, when they had dropped below 400 units.  They’ve increased every month this year and seem to be holding steady with 525 pending at the moment.  That’s a 31% increase.

 

Maui real estate graphs

We are seeing the inventory of so called “distressed properties” (short sales and REO’s) increase, especially REO’s.  Now, before everyone gets excited, these account for only 2.6% of all the condos on the market.  They account for just over 6% of homes, although they made up 11% of home sales. The prices aren’t significantly below market price in most cases, but buyers are still looking for them, and they still go under contract quickly.

 *The opening chart “Aril 2015 Sales Statistics” includes active and pending sales.  The MREA stat includes only active sales. 

Condo sales bounce back 

But the trend is not strong

Condo sales, while up compared to April, are down 9% for the year. There is enough inventory for 7 ½ months of sales at the current rate. But none of that seems to matter as prices are increasing at a healthy rate.

 The median in May was up to $469,000.  That’s the second highest monthly median this year, higher than any month last year and way higher than the January median in 2013 of $297,000.

 So, while we are seeing rising prices and sales are holding steady, the inventory issue is still nagging at me.

 For condos priced less than $500,000, which is about 40% of all of the condos listed, the market favors sellers by a small margin.  But once we get over $500,000 there is 11 months of inventory in several price segments.

 All of this makes me think there are some very patient sellers with some properties that have been on the market for some time. So, here’s one interesting finding.  The average time from listing to closing, Days on Market, for the condos that are selling is 116 days.  The average days on market for properties that are active in our MLS is currently 195 days. 

Area Highlights

Double digit price increases in major condo markets are holding back growth in sales.

 Kihei sales are off by 8% compared to 2014 and the median selling price is up 11%. 

 The Central-District, where many of the more affordable condos are, is down in sales by 31% and up in price by 17%

 Less developer inventory at Honua Kai is likely having an effect on Kaanapali, where sales are off by 34%.  The median selling price there is pushing $1.2M.  That’s 44% higher than last year.

 In Kaanapali’s neighboring Lower Road area, Honokowai/Napili, sales are off by 25%.  The median price is up just 8%.  A small increase compared to the other areas, but still pretty good increase through 5 months.

 And in areas where prices are down, sales are up.  We could be seeing supply and demand in action. 

 In Ma’alaea sales are up 50% over last and prices are down 39%. 

 Kapalua sales are up a modest 6%, but that’s still on the plus side.  And prices?  The median is down 20%.

 In Lahaina Town condo sales continue to rise, up an impressive 50% with prices down slightly, off 6%.

Aina Nalu is a fabulous place to own if you want to be right in the center of everything. There is another one bedroom at the property that just went into escrow, unit D106.  It’s really hard to beat the return on these units.  Aina Nalu G201, a new upstairs 2 bedroom 2 bath listing facing the small pool, is priced at $425,000. It’s MLS #365372,

 I’m selecting our luxury pick for its location, right on the beach.  It is Makena Surf B-203. It has 2 bedrooms, 2 baths and over 1,300 square feet of living area.  It’s priced just under $2.5.  Not bad for beachfront in Makena. It’s MLS #363914.

 For more information on these or any other units, send an email with your request to Robyn@mauilifeproperties.com or Mark@mauilifepropertiues.com

Demand for homes remains strong

Sales surge in more “affordable” areas

The market for homes in the under $780,000 price range, the range where conventional financing is available, remains extremely hot. Last month 74% of homes sold were in this price range, and this month 77% were.  At the current rate of sales there aren’t even enough homes for sale in that price range to last 2 months.

 That means that prices at the lower end of the market, if you can call $780,000 the lower end, have nowhere to go but up.

 And they are going, but not as much as you might expect.  May of 2015 is up 13% over the same month in 2014, but that just measures one month, which gives us only a small piece of the picture.

 For the year-to-date, the median selling price is up only 3%.  That’s because the market for homes over $780,000, with over 17 months worth of inventory, is trending very differently than the somewhat more affordable end.

Area Highlights – Where is everybody going?

The less resort-like side of the island, think Central Maui, Upcountry and Haiku areas, are posting huge increases in sales.  And, with the exception of Maui’s central area, that appears to be due to stable or even somewhat lower median selling prices.

 In fact all of the areas on the leeward side of the island have median selling prices below the magic $780K mark, except Kula where the median selling price is $787,000.

 That’s where everybody is going, as the sales volume indicates.

 In Haiku, sales are up 19% so far this year.  The median selling price there is $745,000, down 6% from last year.

 

In Maui’s upcountry, starting with Kula, sales are up 32%, with prices off by 9%.  Neighboring Pukalani has had a 50% increase in sales activity with the median price declining by 4%.

 Makawao is the outlier upcountry.  Sales are actually off 21% even though prices are down 12%.  That may be a good place to look for a bargain.

 The hottest area on Maui continues to be the central, Kahului/Wailuku, area. It is far and away the number one market with 134 sales so far this.  Kihei has the second most sales with 65. 

 Sales in the central area are up 25% and prices are also up 20%.  Through the first 5 months of last year the median selling price was $423,286.  That was the lowest, most affordable spot on Maui.  This year the median is up to $507,286 and now has only the second lowest median price on Maui.  The area with the lowest median price is Makawao. 

The numbers for the upper end of the market tell a different tale.

The prize for the highest median selling price this year goes to Kapalua, handily beating the area with the second highest median selling price – Kaanapali. 

 Kapalua’s median is $3,350,000.  That’s up 3%, dead even with the overall market.

 So, where is Wailea?  That’s a good question.  Sales in Wailea are off by 53% and prices are down a whopping 39% from $2,108,000 through the first 5 months of last year to a paltry $1,280,000 this year.  With 7 sales so far this year, just over 1 per month, and 35 active listings, only 3 of which are priced at or below the median selling price, it looks like tough sledding for sellers in Wailea. 

 The surprise is Kaanapali.  Kaanapali has always been a strong area, but sales this year are up 44% on a slight increase in selling price of 4%. So, with prices relatively stable in the 2 west side luxury communities, that just raises more questions about Wailea’s situation.

 Kihei has the second most sales of any Maui area, trailing only the Central area.  There have been 65 sales there this year, off 11% from 2014, with the median price up 7%.

 Lahaina, with 18 sales, is down 10% in sales and the median price has fallen from $1,223,750 to a rather attractive looking $700,000.  The challenge is finding something in the “Lahaina” area at that price.  Of the 37 active listings in Lahaina, which includes Launiupoko, only 3 are priced under $700,000.

 Sales in Napili/Kahana have slowed.  They are down 18% this year.  The reason is likely that the median selling price is up 43% to just under $1,000,000 at $985,000.  And 14 of the 19 active listings are priced above the median.

Last month’s best buy is gone, just as we expected.  This month we went to Makawao, and we found a pretty good deal.  This is a 5 bedroom, 3 bath home of 2,260 square feet.  The asking price is $649,000.  That comes in at $287 per square foot, which is well below the average asking price per foot of $585 and below the average selling price per square foot in Makawao of $422. It’s #365283 in the MLS. 

 Some authorities define “luxury” real estate as something priced is excess of $2,000,000.  But, hey, if you’re in Wailea, you’re in a luxury Maui luxury real estate market, right?  So, this looks pretty interesting.  It’s a 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home of 2,219 square feet with a very nice ocean view.  It was originally priced at $1,925,000, but has been reduced to $1,895,000.  OK, so not a big drop, but there is some motivation and it’s under $2 mil. It’s #363470 in the MLS.